Championing non-proliferation and arms control
Nuclear war can never be won and so must never be fought. Still, a knowledge of its futility will not save us from its horror.
There is no denying that great-power conflict remains one of the most plausible routes to human extinction. Its likely escalation to a nuclear exchange would bring total annihilation to life on earth. It is a war that can never be won and so must never be fought.
Still, a knowledge of its futility will not save us from its horror. That hardly curbed the brinkmanship of the Cold War. And it does nothing to prevent miscalculation or accidents, of which there have been many. Our survival so far in the nuclear age is a measure of luck more so than mastery. Yet it is a die we continue to roll.
Indeed, the risks of nuclear war may be higher than at any point since the Cold War. New states have joined the nuclear club, and old members are modernising their arsenals. Sabres increasingly rattle. Flashpoints brim with tinder. Yet doctrine remains dusty; treaties, abandoned. We are not just rolling the die—we are actively loading it.
Arms control in this context remains as urgent as ever. It is not something that Australia can unilaterally bring out. But our stake in the planet's survival requires that we leverage whatever weight we can in bringing the great powers back to the table.
Australia will therefore work at the international level to advocate cooperation on the following pertinent issues:
Multilateral arms control. Australia, like all small and middle powers, has an abiding interest in seeing great powers contain the potential for mass or mutual destruction. We will therefore advocate that recognised nuclear powers maintain progress on existing disarmament treaties, such as New START, and encourage China's incorporation into multilateral arms control arrangements.
US-China nuclear stability. As China builds its nuclear capability, it is critical that the US and China develop the same kind of crisis communications, confidence-building, and risk-reduction measures that helped to stabilise the US-Russia nuclear relationship. Australia will encourage mutual progress by the US and China towards that end.
Non-proliferation. Australia is firmly committed to preventing the further proliferation of nuclear weapons. We will continue to promote the NPT and its objectives, particularly through our contributions to the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative (NPDI), nuclear disarmament verification initiatives (IPNDV and GGE), and negotiations towards a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT). We will also continue to support multilateral efforts to stall the nuclear weapons programs of Iran and North Korea.
Keeping space demilitarised. Australia will act as a flag bearer for efforts to keep space free of offensive military systems. This requires ongoing championing at the diplomatic level, as the existing provisions of the Outer Space Treaty do not proscribe new forms of conventional weapons that could be deployed in space.
Conventional weapons that carry nuclear escalation risks. The proliferation of anti-satellite and hypersonic weapons is increasing the risk of accidental nuclear escalation; they would be hard to distinguish from ballistic missiles in a conventional conflict, especially if communication and warning systems have been degraded. In the interests of reducing risks of miscalculation, Australia will lobby for the limitation of such weapons under multilateral arrangements.